Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 09 2023 07:57:26

ACUS03 KWNS 090756
SWODY3
SPC AC 090755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent on
Monday.

....Discussion...
Substantial cyclogenesis late D2 should persist into early D3 with
the surface low tracking near the New England coast to the Canadian
Maritimes. An extremely strong low-level jet ahead of the cyclone,
increasing to around 100 kts at 850 mb, may advect sufficient
western Atlantic moisture to yield minimal elevated buoyancy. Both
00Z NAM and ECMWF forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE may reach 100
J/kg across Cape Cod to Downeast ME on Monday morning, but this
appears to be largely inadequate for charge separation given weak
lapse rates above 500 mb. Still, very strong forcing for ascent
might support a few lightning flashes within heavier convective
elements embedded amid a broad swath of rain.

Elsewhere across the CONUS, with the surface cold front expected to
clear the south FL Peninsula just prior to 12Z Monday, thunderstorm
potential will be negligible.

...Grams.. 12/09/2023

$$

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