Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 09 2023 00:58:25

ACUS01 KWNS 090058
SWODY1
SPC AC 090057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated large-hail threat will be possible this evening into
tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. A marginal
tornado threat could also develop in parts of central and northern
Arkansas.

....Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks...
Latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the central
Plains and southern Rockies. Mid-level moisture was evident near and
to the east of the trough from Colorado into western Kansas. An
associated 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate eastward into
the base of the trough this evening. Ahead of the system, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible on the western edge of the low-level jet this evening into
tonight, as large-scale ascent increases from the west. The
strongest convection is expected to form along the northern edge of
a corridor of moderate instability from central Arkansas into
southern Missouri. Any cell that can initiate and become sustained
could have a threat for isolated large hail. The combination of
shear and instability is forecast to become maximized over central
and northern Arkansas, where a marginal tornado threat will also be
possible. Any threat that develops could persist into the 09Z to 12Z
timeframe, as the upper-level system moves into the region.

...Broyles.. 12/09/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.