Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Dec 08 2023 20:00:54 ACUS01 KWNS 082000 SWODY1 SPC AC 081959 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ....20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster, the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions of southeast WI before the end of the period. ...Dean.. 12/08/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ....Ozarks/ArkLaTex... Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south. Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south. A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .