Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 07 2023 01:03:48

FOUS30 KWBC 070102
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 PM EST Wed Dec 06 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Dec 07 2023 - 12Z Thu Dec 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The atmospheric river which preceded the upper trough currently in
place over the West Coast has continued to dwindle during the
afternoon hours with 23Z data from GPS sensors along the central
California coast having measured peak precipitable water values in
the 0.8-0.9 inch range. In the wake of the cold front to continue
moving inland overnight, snow levels will fall and precipitation
along the coast into the upslope regions of the Cascades will be
hit or miss showers. Rainfall rates within individual cells may
being to approach 0.5 in/hr, but these higher intensities should
be very spotty in nature with peak total additional rainfall near
1 inch expected through 12Z. The Marginal Risk has been removed
from the West Coast and northern Idaho Panhandle with this update.

Otto



Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 07 2023 - 12Z Fri Dec 08 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 08 2023 - 12Z Sat Dec 09 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_UDxTyONduk7Yulvk5cTTltePzX1r_yJvMQ_0Z7AnHM=
FzhyxT_5_8H9XACIvwTFUe0M9kf3-FKpubmVuqLyy6BrXe4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_UDxTyONduk7Yulvk5cTTltePzX1r_yJvMQ_0Z7AnHM=
FzhyxT_5_8H9XACIvwTFUe0M9kf3-FKpubmVuqLyINagWMY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5_UDxTyONduk7Yulvk5cTTltePzX1r_yJvMQ_0Z7AnHM=
FzhyxT_5_8H9XACIvwTFUe0M9kf3-FKpubmVuqLyMgTyiRI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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