Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 06 2023 20:00:11

ACUS01 KWNS 062000
SWODY1
SPC AC 061958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

....20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was removing the General
Thunderstorm area over Idaho and Montana. Most short-range guidance
depicts very minimal instability over the area, and any thunderstorm
activity should remain very isolated. Elsewhere, the forecast
remains on track.

...Weinman/Leitman.. 12/06/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023/

....Western OR and northern CA...
A strong upper trough is approaching the coast of northern CA and
southwest OR, with the associated surface cold front moving ashore
in the next couple of hours.  Strong onshore flow, lift in vicinity
of the front, and cold temperatures aloft may result in isolated
lightning flashes this afternoon along the coastal ranges and
interior mountains of northern CA/western OR.  Present indications
are that this activity will be quite sparse.

....ID/MT...
Later tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will track inland
and affect portions of ID/MT.  Steep mid-level lapse rates and
continued strong large scale lift will result in convective showers
over the mountains of central ID into western MT.  Profiles will be
quite cold, but pockets of weak instability may be sufficient for a
few lightning flashes - mainly after midnight.

$$

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