Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 06 2023 17:31:10

ACUS02 KWNS 061731
SWODY2
SPC AC 061729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
Embedded within a large-scale trough over the northwestern CONUS, a
west-northwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread northern CA
early in the period, while a related weak surface low and cold front
move ashore over the Pacific Northwest coast. Left-exit region
ascent and frontal forcing will support multiple rounds of scattered
eastward-spreading convection, focused over coastal WA/OR and
northern CA. Despite poor boundary-layer moisture, cold temperatures
aloft/steep lapse rates will still yield sufficient (albeit weak)
instability for isolated/embedded low-topped thunderstorms. While
modestly enhanced low-level shear is possible over northwestern
CA/coastal OR early in the period, the weak buoyancy should limit
strong/severe storm potential. As large-scale ascent accompanying
the jet streak/midlevel impulse continues east-southeastward into
the Intermountain West, steep lapse rates/weak instability could
favor very isolated thunderstorms, though coverage of such activity
appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area.

...Weinman/Leitman.. 12/06/2023

$$

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