Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 06 2023 12:16:39

ACUS01 KWNS 061216
SWODY1
SPC AC 061214

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

....Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified synoptic
pattern will continue through the period.  A substantial trough --
now just inland from and nearly parallel to the U.S. Atlantic Coast
-- will move seaward before 00Z.  Cold frontal passages related to
this system will render the airmass over and east of the
Intermountain West too stable and/or dry for thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, upstream ridging will shift eastward from the Rockies
across the Great Plains.  This will occur as a Pacific synoptic
trough -- along with a series of accompanying shortwaves and
vorticity maxima -- shift inland across the Pacific Coast States
from central CA northward.

The leading -- and currently strongest -- of the shortwave troughs
was apparent in moisture-channel imagery near 135W between about
33N-45N, preceded (as common for such troughs) by a baroclinic-leaf
formation on satellite imagery.  An associated band of frontogenetic
forcing accompanied by a precip band should reach the coastline
today.  As that occurs -- and especially afterward in cooling air
aloft (-20 to -30 deg C) and steepening low/middle-level lapse rates
accompanying the strongest DCVA -- some of the convection may extend
into icing layers suitable for lightning production.  Isolated
thunderstorm potential appears most probable over portions of
northern CA and western OR, as well as overnight in the Bitterroots
vicinity with columnar cooling/moistening.  In each area, around
50-100 J/kg MUCAPE will support the convection.

...Edwards/Kerr.. 12/06/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.