Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 06 2023 05:16:36

ACUS01 KWNS 060516
SWODY1
SPC AC 060515

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Some lightning potential exists with convection along parts of the
northern Pacific Coast.

....Pacific Coast...

Upper ridge currently observed over the western US will shift east
and break down as a strong short-wave trough ejects inland along the
northern Pacific Coast. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed
max will translate across northern CA into the Great Basin by the
end of the period. Along and north of this jet, thermal profiles
will cool/steepen such that weak buoyancy will evolve in support of
convection. Forecast soundings across this region suggest the
greatest risk for deep convection, capable of generating lighting,
will occur during the latter half of the period. During this time,
500mb temperatures will cool to near -30C over WA/OR, and at least
-20C across most of northern CA.

...Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2023

$$

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