Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 05 2023 12:39:04

ACUS01 KWNS 051238
SWODY1
SPC AC 051237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm areas are not expected through early Wednesday morning.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a progressive and fairly well-amplified
synoptic pattern will carry through the period, led by a strong
trough moving across the eastern CONUS, and ridging over the Rockies
and High Plains.  A strong shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-
channel imagery over portions of WI/IL/MO -- will move eastward
across the Appalachians tonight and through the larger-scale trough.
Smaller shortwaves will move from northwestern ON across the Upper
Great Lakes, and separately, southeastward rapidly from the northern
Plains to the Ozarks and portions of the Southeast.  Late this
afternoon into evening, enough cooling aloft and residual low-level
moisture will be in place to support around 100 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of
the leading perturbation, in a corridor from southern OH to eastern
TN.  However, forecast soundings suggest buoyancy will remain below
an optimal icing layer for lightning, though a rogue strike or two
cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, a long-fetch, warm-advection conveyor ahead of the next
Pacific trough will settle southward down the Northwest Coast,
reaching northwesternmost CA around the end of the period.  Lapse
rates in this plume should remain too weak to support areas of
thunderstorms.

...Edwards/Kerr.. 12/05/2023

$$

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