Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 05 2023 07:22:02

ACUS03 KWNS 050721
SWODY3
SPC AC 050721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will be negligible across much of the CONUS
on Thursday. The lone exception will be over the Pacific Northwest,
where sporadic lightning flashes are possible, mainly during the
first half of the period near the coast.

The next in a series of shortwave troughs will impinge on the
Pacific Northwest coast on Thursday, before digging towards the
northern Great Basin by Thursday night. Already steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates in the wake of a trough passage on D2/Wednesday, will
steepen further between 8 to 8.5 C/km as cold 500-mb temperatures
from -30 to -35 C become common. This should compensate for
gradually decreasing boundary-layer moisture with low 40s surface
dew points holding along the coast through Thursday afternoon. Scant
surface-based buoyancy is anticipated with multiple rounds of
scattered low-topped convection. Similar to D2, sporadic lightning
flashes will be possible, although focused somewhat farther north
along the OR/WA coast and mainly in the morning to afternoon.

...Grams.. 12/05/2023

$$

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