Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 03 2023 09:54:53

ACUS48 KWNS 030954
SWOD48
SPC AC 030953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Sun Dec 03 2023

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central and
eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. A relatively dry and cool
airmass over the continental United States will make conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

....Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the Four
Corners region Friday. Ahead of the system, moisture advection will
take place in the southern Plains. As the system moves into the
south-central states Friday night, thunderstorm development will be
possible along a low-level jet from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley. New model runs have the system
moving to the east faster, which should limit the amount of time for
moisture to return. For this reason, the stronger instability Friday
night should be confined to east Texas. Severe storms could occur
there but any threat should remain isolated.

On Saturday and Sunday, the latest model runs now have a different
and much faster solution. The system is forecast to move quickly
across the Southeast over the weekend. Thunderstorms will be likely
ahead of the trough, and a severe threat will be possible. However,
due to a lack of run-to-run consistency, uncertainty appears
considerable in the Southeast over the weekend.

...Broyles.. 12/03/2023

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