Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 03 2023 08:28:00 FOUS30 KWBC 030827 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 AM EST Sun Dec 03 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Dec 03 2023 - 12Z Mon Dec 04 2023 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL OF THE OREGON COAST RANGES AND MUCH OF THE OREGON CASCADES... A moderately-strong atmospheric river, centered on OR, will continue to push into the coast today through this evening. A brief reprieve from the rain is expected tonight between impulses of energy. On top of the rain that's already fallen, expect another 2 to 4 inches of rain through this evening, with local amounts as high as 6 inches for the day. More widely scattered flash flooding impacts are likely today due to so much rain falling in a short amount of time. NASA Sport imagery shows soil moisture profiles about normal for this time of year across western OR, or about 75% saturated. The additional rainfall today should take less time than yesterday to cause flash flooding impacts since there's rain ongoing and soil moisture levels continue to increase. The ERO risk areas today remain largely the same, with the only change of note to extend the Slight Risk into the northwest corner of CA, from Crescent City northward as the coastal ranges in that area may see 2 to 4 inches of rain through this evening. The Slight Risk remains in effect for much of the OR Cascades, as rising snow levels will allow for snowmelt to contribute to rising river levels on the west side of the range, along with most to all of the precipitation on the foothills of the Cascades falling as rain. Much lighter amounts of rain are expected from central WA north today as the focus says largely over OR, with only 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. Since this too will be added to previous' days rains, an isolated flash flooding instance can't be ruled out, and the Marginal remains unchanged. Wegman Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-oNsNLKJ_KGGuwbcLDNKy5lnnFrXTFRqgX8kd_yreACr= 4fqI4nqXlpu382zqCG0JWSgwfCa3qKUXWYxZA3f0k6d-NeU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-oNsNLKJ_KGGuwbcLDNKy5lnnFrXTFRqgX8kd_yreACr= 4fqI4nqXlpu382zqCG0JWSgwfCa3qKUXWYxZA3f0a_EDJb4$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-oNsNLKJ_KGGuwbcLDNKy5lnnFrXTFRqgX8kd_yreACr= 4fqI4nqXlpu382zqCG0JWSgwfCa3qKUXWYxZA3f0aP3osRE$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .