Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 03 2023 05:46:20 ACUS01 KWNS 030546 SWODY1 SPC AC 030544 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over western Pennsylvania this afternoon. ....Synopsis... Shortwave trough traversing KS/OK early Sunday morning is expected to progress northeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys today, before then continuing through the Northeast overnight. Another substantial shortwave trough will follow in the wake of the first, moving through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley by early Monday morning. Surface pattern early Sunday morning features a low over eastern KY/TN vicinity, with a cold front extending from this low back southwest from the low across northern and western AL, and southern MS. This low is forecast to progress north-northeastward throughout the day, deepening as it does. At the same time, the cold front is expected to make steady eastward progress across AL, GA, and much of the FL Peninsula. Expectation is for the front to be off the Southeast coast and through much of the northern and central FL by early Monday morning. Thunderstorms are possible along this front, as well as preceding outflow. Moderate mid-level flow will be in place, but the stronger flow aloft will lag behind these showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, buoyancy will be tempered by modest lapse rates. These factors should limit the overall storm strength and keep severe potential low. ....Upper OH Valley... Despite early period cloudiness and showers, the airmass across the Upper OH Valley is expected to destabilize by the afternoon, with temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 50s across western PA. Low-level moisture will be modest, with dewpoints likely in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled with cooling temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected foster thunderstorm development as it interacts with this limited buoyancy. Low-level flow will be modest, but strong mid and upper-level flow will encourage fast storm motions and the potential for a few stronger gusts with any robust storms. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear, some hail is possible as well. ...Mosier/Thornton.. 12/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .