Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 02 2023 19:34:48 ACUS01 KWNS 021934 SWODY1 SPC AC 021933 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO NORTH FL AND FAR SOUTHERN GA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the central/ northeastern Gulf Coast into north Florida and far southern Georgia through this evening. ....20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been extended eastward into parts of north FL and far southern GA. A small storm cluster has recently intensified across the northwest FL Peninsula, and this cluster may continue to propagate along a differential heating zone through the afternoon, with some potential for additional development. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support organized convection, with locally damaging wind and a brief tornado possible. Otherwise, extensive convection offshore of the northern Gulf Coast will likely continue to limit the short-term inland severe threat across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. However, some recovery is possible along the coast this evening prior to frontal passage, and a strong inland storm or two cannot be ruled out. Due to this potential, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities in this area, though confidence remains low. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Dean.. 12/02/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023/ ....Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress eastward over the eastern half of the CONUS as a second, upstream shortwave over the northern Rockies begins to amplify. To the West, ridging will slowly build over the eastern Pacific, shunting stronger flow aloft northward toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a cold front was observed stretching from the Ohio Valley to the MS Delta, with a diffuse and decaying warm front located just offshore. A broad and weak wave cyclone, along the cold front, should progress northeastward reaching the upper OH River valley by 12z Sun. ....Central and northeast Gulf Coast... Morning observations show widespread precipitation and convection ongoing north of the weakening warm front across parts of eastern LA southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Despite relatively moist surface conditions, much of the true warm sector remains offshore. In the absence of stronger mass response from weak forcing for ascent, low-level warm air advection is expected to remain weak as the broad surface low slowly traverses along the front to the northeast. Widespread cloud debris and ongoing precipitation also strongly suggest destabilization will remain quite limited inland. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear should be sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts as convection continually redevelops off the Gulf. A few of these stronger cells may eventually move inland with the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the immediate coast. Deep-layer shear and hodograph size should gradually decrease through the day as the warm sector becomes increasingly separated from the shortwave trough lifting away. While a few clusters of storms should persist into this evening, the severe threat should gradually wane from west to east as the cold front moves eastward. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .