Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 02 2023 18:36:13 AWUS01 KWNH 021836 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-030035- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1187 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 135 PM EST Sat Dec 02 2023 Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Southern GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 021835Z - 030035Z Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to repeat across portions of the FL Panhandle, and are now entering into southern GA. Additional cell training will maintain a threat of scattered flash flooding through this afternoon, especially over areas in the FL Panhandle which saw heavy rainfall earlier today. Discussion...A focused axis of showers and thunderstorms continue to stream northeast from the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the Florida Panhandle, and are now entering southern GA. Persistent training of this activity combined with max estimated rainfall rates of 2-2.5"/hour has resulted in several instances of observed flash flooding over the last several hours across the FL Panhandle. This corridor of heavy rainfall remains tied to an enhanced area of southwesterly 925-850 hPa moisture transport interacting with a pair of surface boundaries, including an east-west oriented marine warm front which bisects a confluence boundary analyzed by KDLP. Aloft, a highly diffluent flow pattern is noted in the 250-350 mb layer by GOES DMWs to condition the environment for additional cellular development in the presence of these boundaries. Trends in the Blended-TPW combined with point soundings in the vicinity of the activity highlight a very moist, saturated profile available to encourage efficient rainfall production. In fact, recent TPW estimates of 1.9-2" in the vicinity of TLH would exceed the all time daily max for December 2 according to SPC climatology. The main detractor to more prolific rainfall rates for this setup is the overall lack of robust instability, which will remain confined south of the marine warm front. However, the HRRR suggests a narrow profile of elevated 400-500 J/kg MUCAPE could materialize over the next several hours north of the front. This could be just enough to enhance rainfall rates given the otherwise favorable moist profile. Going through the afternoon, the HRRR (which has the best handle on the activity compared to other hi-res) suggests a swath of 2-4" is possible across portions of the Panhandle into southern GA where additional development and training occurs. This will likely maintain a threat of scattered flash flooding through the afternoon hours, particularly over the FL Panhandle which already experienced several instances of flash flooding. Asherman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_np7M8XoSxR2hiQHTav3_r9NXhmGfcJ5Hs0i88VA80Lpx4lGghM7ITKpKQ_s5iVzx5_a= rjtyDskXnZtpkOs_KED9J2o$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31848192 30698227 30128350 29818418 29578517=20 29988569 30638642 31108501 31818350=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .