Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 02 2023 00:46:41

ACUS01 KWNS 020046
SWODY1
SPC AC 020044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Some tornado risk will be noted with convection along the central
Gulf Coast tonight.

....01z Update...

Broad upper ridging will hold across the Gulf Basin tonight, though
some influence of an approaching upper trough will affect Coastal TX
late. In response to this trough, a weak surface low should evolve
along the frontal zone over the western Gulf then advance northeast
toward the western LA Coast. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to
increase this evening, strengthening into southern AL/western FL
Panhandle after midnight.

Latest radar data suggests low-level warm advection may be
increasing across the northwestern Gulf, immediately ahead of the
expected low track. Considerable amount of deep convection has
evolved across this region and this activity should gradually
develop/spread northeast into LA. 00z sounding from LCH exhibits
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with surface-based parcels buoyant now that
70F dew points have moved inland. Considerable warm layer is
currently observed between 2-3km AGL, slightly more than 18z NAM
suggested would exist at 00z. However, this warm layer is forecast
to quickly erode over the next several hours and parcels should
freely convect within the strengthening warm advection regime.
Deep-layer flow/shear supports supercells, though low-level shear
will remain a bit weak in the short term, before gradually
strengthening into the overnight. Current thinking is
scattered-numerous thunderstorms will ultimately evolve along the
central Gulf Coast and embedded supercells may pose at least some
risk for a few brief tornadoes.

...Darrow.. 12/02/2023

$$

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