Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Dec 01 2023 19:42:44 ACUS01 KWNS 011942 SWODY1 SPC AC 011940 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ....20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ...Leitman.. 12/01/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ....Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .