Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 01 2023 16:58:40

ACUS02 KWNS 011658
SWODY2
SPC AC 011657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over
parts of the Southeast.

....Central Gulf Coast vicinity...

A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as
fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead
of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the
Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop
east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and
overnight hours.

Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized
thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the
region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints
spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL,
limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with
only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability
anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain
offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop
over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the
FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple
strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving
inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be
difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should
diminish quickly.

...Leitman.. 12/01/2023

$$

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