Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 01 2023 16:10:13

ACUS01 KWNS 011610
SWODY1
SPC AC 011608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are
possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western
Florida Panhandle.

....Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  A line of
thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the
central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL
Panhandle.  These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp
and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits.
This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer
and weaken.  Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally
gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up.

farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the
immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA.  A
subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach
the western Gulf later this afternoon.  Slight strengthening of
southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm
advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered
thunderstorms.  There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA
into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms
could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight.
Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and
limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only
marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for
this scenario at this time.  However, we will continue to monitor
this risk.

...Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.