Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Dec 01 2023 05:39:08 ACUS01 KWNS 010539 SWODY1 SPC AC 010537 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ....SUMMARY... Scattered storms, with some severe potential, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states. ....Gulf States... Strong, negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across OK late this evening. This feature will advance into the lower OH Valley early in the period as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward western KY by daybreak. Farther west, a digging short-wave trough will approach the southern Rockies by 02/00z before shifting slowly toward the High Plains. This evolution will result in weak midlevel height rises across the Gulf States as the strongest core of 500mb flow extends from west TX-southern MO-OH Valley. At the surface, primary synoptic front is forecast to move off the TX Coast, extending across the lower MS Valley. This wind shift will gradually advance southeast, but do so slowly due to the lack of upper support, and a relatively weak surface high centered over northern MO. Additionally, while low-level warm advection will be maximized early over the central Gulf States, some increase in the LLJ is expected across the northwestern Gulf Basin into southern LA/southern MS during the latter half of the period. In the absence of meaningful large-scale support, and only partial boundary-layer heating, it appears low-level warm advection will prove instrumental in convective development much of the period. Forecast soundings across the warm sector suggest modest buoyancy will develop across southern LA into southern AL/extreme western FL Panhandle. Scattered convection that evolves within this air mass will do so within a sheared environment favorable for organized updrafts -- potentially supercellular. Where surface dew points are able to rise to near 70F, there is some risk for surface-based updrafts; otherwise, much of the convection across this region will be slightly elevated. Latest guidance suggests several bouts of potentially robust convection, both early and overnight, modulated by the LLJ. Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary risks. ...Darrow/Thornton.. 12/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .