Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 01 2023 00:50:11

ACUS01 KWNS 010050
SWODY1
SPC AC 010048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms/tornadoes remain possible tonight from southeast
Texas into southern Louisiana. Isolated hail is also possible across
southern Oklahoma into northeast Texas.

....01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over the southern High Plains, ejecting northeast in line
with earlier model guidance. Seasonally cold 500mb temperatures
(less than -20C) are spreading across western OK/northwestern TX
which is contributing to elevated buoyancy for parcels lifted above
the boundary layer. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited steep 3-6km
lapse rates and MUCAPE around 400 J/kg. Marginally severe hail
appears possible with convection immediately ahead of the ejecting
vort/short wave.

Farther southeast along the upper TX Coast, deep-layer flow is
beginning to veer which has shunted the primary zone of confluence
for deep convection just east of the Houston metro region. Latest
radar data suggests the most robust updrafts are noted along the
southwestern flank of a southwest-northeast line that extends from
the lower Sabine River Valley toward Galveston Bay. This is likely
due to higher dew points/buoyancy along the western fringe of the
strongest low-level warm advection. Current thinking is warm
advection will continue to be the primary instigator in thunderstorm
activity along the upper TX/southwestern LA Coast tonight as the
main zone of strong midlevel height falls will spread well north of
this region. Greatest potential for a tornado or two will occur with
near-surface-based storms in proximity to greater SRH, which is now
east of Houston. Even so, the tornado threat should remain isolated.

...Darrow.. 12/01/2023

$$

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