Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2293
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 30 2023 23:26:08

ACUS11 KWNS 302326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302325=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-010100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Areas affected...southwestern Oklahoma into north-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302325Z - 010100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal risk of severe hail will be possible over the
next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown strengthening cores
within the cells near the Red River along the Texas/Oklahoma border.
Mid-level cooling associated with the upper-level trough has given
way to a small corridor of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg along the OK/TX
border. Forecast soundings from the RAP along with objective
analysis show steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 c/km and deep
layer shear around 35-40 kts. This will support potential for a few
instances of severe hail (up to 1-1.25 in). Recent reports of hail
up to 3/4 inch have been noted near Childress. Due to short time
window within the better instability and due to nocturnal cooling,
it is unlikely that the hail threat will be long lived. As such, a
watch is not anticipated.

...Thornton/Smith.. 11/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9FsSILHAXpLtV2uzuo7NHwfLpQBpwvd8ioVRuPgRnHS9wbog10YdfVRJdles9ElzX05l2hPvD=
5ExQ7vmemHEcdy-jUQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34000016 34350024 34710018 34860011 34930010 35069999
            35209954 35139900 34969849 34749825 34369801 34189793
            33929795 33519813 33419917 33569977 34000016=20


=3D =3D =3D
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