Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2291
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 30 2023 18:45:08

ACUS11 KWNS 301845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301844=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301844Z - 302045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe hail, and perhaps
damaging wind gusts, should increase through the mid-afternoon hours
across northeast Texas and portions of far southwestern Oklahoma.
Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, the coverage and intensity of
convection has increased across central to northeast TX as lift
within a warm advection regime and ahead of an approaching upper
wave increases. While much of this convection is well displaced from
a narrow plume of surface-based buoyancy stretching from the TX Gulf
coast into central TX, MUCAPE across northeast TX has steadily
increased to around 1000 J/kg amid warming/moistening within the
925-850 mb layer. Observed storm motions and a lack of apparent
low-level mesocyclones further suggest that this convection is
rooted above the surface, but elongated hodographs above 2 km
(featuring effective bulk shear values near 40 knots), should
support storm organization with an attendant risk of isolated large
hail. Cooling cloud top temperatures and an uptick in lightning
counts over the past 15-30 minutes suggest convection is beginning
to realize this environment, so an increasing hail threat seems
probable (though clustered storm modes may inhibit the overall
threat). Recent hi-res guidance, including HRRR-based SCRAMM
solutions and WOFS ensemble output, appears to have picked up on
this trend and shows increasing potential for isolated hail across
northeast TX over the next several hours. While the signal for
severe winds is comparatively weaker, a few damaging gusts will be
possible. Regardless, the overall severe threat should remain too
limited to warrant watch issuance.

...Moore/Thompson.. 11/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Pa88xcRLka7k7FNtGozqxbW5dmqqQqSFQfMQOHksHO4TBUg94_5wuLsKIAx_0DuuoDJQxXAS=
6zH4xkcTjsOec3ET3o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31409742 31779765 32809746 33529748 33949761 34369566
            34179495 33879449 33059425 32399443 31749489 31529539
            31409742=20


=3D =3D =3D
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