Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 30 2023 17:29:08

ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the
central Gulf Coast states on Friday into Friday night.

....Synopsis...

A low-level warm advection regime will persist across the central
Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity on Friday. This is in response to a
midlevel shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Midwest.
A trailing cold front extending from the low across eastern/southern
TX early in the period will shift slowly east toward the
Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Mid/upper 60s F surface
dewpoints will develop northward across MS/AL through the day.
Showers and cloud cover will limit heating and the overall lapse
rate environment will remain poor. This will result in mainly weak
destabilization as far north as the I-20 corridor, though greater
instability (to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will remain confined to the
coastal vicinity. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles and
effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support at least
transient organized cells. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain
focused north of the region, with low-level confluence along the
effective surface front contributing to bands of
showers/thunderstorms shifting east through the period.

Given shear profiles conditionally supporting supercells, but a
rather modest thermodynamic environment, will maintain the Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk with some southward adjustments based on latest
forecast guidance.

...Leitman.. 11/30/2023

$$

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