Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 30 2023 13:06:07 ACUS01 KWNS 301306 SWODY1 SPC AC 301304 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today especially over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Farther north, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ....Central/Eastern Texas and Louisiana... A progressive southern-stream shortwave trough centered over Arizona/New Mexico in the predawn hours will continue eastward toward the southern High Plains, before ejecting more northeastward toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley tonight, with surface cyclogenesis in a similar southwest/northeast-oriented corridor today. As this occurs, an increasingly moisture-rich maritime warm sector will spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coastal plain toward east-central Texas, although source-region trajectories have been somewhat deleteriously augmented, at least temporally, by overnight convection that developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. As additional low-level moistening (65-70F surface dewpoints) occurs, confluence/convergence should increase within the broadening warm sector across southeast/east-central Texas. Curved/relatively elongated hodographs will exist today, such as noted in the 12z observed sounding from Corpus Christi, TX, where 0-1 km SRH was around 180 m2/s2, although a flow weakness and a residual capping layer were both noted around 700 mb. Regardless, hodographs will further lengthen as 1-3 km AGL (850mb/750mb) southwesterly winds strengthen this afternoon. This will support an increasing potential for supercells into midday/afternoon across southeast/perhaps east-central Texas, with associated potential for a few tornadoes aside from thunderstorm wind damage and possibly some hail. The potential for severe storms including a tornado risk should continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ....North Texas/Oklahoma... Farther north, convection will tend to be elevated with a more isolated severe risk in the form of hail and possibly locally damaging winds. However, even with limited moisture, a few stronger near-surface-based low-topped storms could materialize across western north Texas/western Oklahoma in vicinity of the surface low/triple point, where a very steep lapse rate environment will exist. ...Guyer/Mosier.. 11/30/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .