Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 30 2023 06:28:37

ACUS02 KWNS 300628
SWODY2
SPC AC 300627

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the
central Gulf Coast states on Friday, as well as overnight.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
On Friday, a shortwave trough will move quickly from the OH Valley
into the Northeast, while a secondary, low-amplitude wave moves from
the southern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. South of the
track of these trough, moderate southwest flow aloft will persist,
from TX into the lower MS and TN Valley, with neutral height
tendencies.

At the surface, low pressure will weaken as it moves from MO into IN
during the day, with an boundary extending southwestward across
TN/MS/LA and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The position of this
weak boundary may be correlated with ongoing convection early Friday
morning, roughly from LA into MS, with areas of outflow. Additional
storms are likely to develop ahead of the front though, in a
moistening air mass over AL as a warm front gradually lifts ahead of
the aforementioned boundary to the west.

Overall, large-scale ascent will be weak, but persistent
southwesterly flow around 850 mb and the lifting warm front will aid
destabilization via moisture advection. Scattered storms both with
the early-day activity along the western front, and with isolated
new development across the warm sector over southern MS and AL may
yield damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado prior to winds
veering with the passage of the initial wave.

Overnight, as the second shortwave trough approaches,
redevelopment is expected from LA into MS and AL.  A southwesterly
low-level jet will strengthen, which will maintain a moist air mass
with 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Forecast soundings toward 12Z Saturday
depict sufficient instability to support a transient supercell or
two, with brief tornado risk.

...Jewell.. 11/30/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.