Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 30 2023 06:02:35 ACUS01 KWNS 300602 SWODY1 SPC AC 300601 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered storms with some severe, will be possible today over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes are expected, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Further north, into parts of east Texas and southern Oklahoma, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible. ....Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico today. An associated 70 to 85 knot mid-level jet will move eastward across northern Mexico and into west Texas by this afternoon. Ahead of the mid-level jet, moisture advection will occur across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 65 to 70 F range from the middle Texas Coast northward into the area west of the Houston Metro. As surface heating takes place along and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. As the system approaches, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will be maintained across east Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet will aid convective development during the day over much of east Texas extending northward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat will be possible across much of this weakly unstable airmass throughout the day. Further south from the middle Texas Coast into Southeast Texas, the environment will become favorable for supercells by around midday. As surface dewpoints and low-level shear increase, Significant Tornado Parameter is forecast to peak in the 4 to 5 range by early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings just west of Houston at 21Z have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity reaching about 325 m2/s2. This will likely support a tornado threat associated with supercells that form and move into the Houston area this afternoon. A small cluster of tornadoes is expected across southeast Texas. Although damaging wind gusts will also be possible, this threat will be associated with supercell downdrafts and should remain isolated. There could also be a localized large hail threat with supercells. The potential for severe storms could continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...Broyles/Weinman.. 11/30/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .