Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 29 2023 19:45:05

ACUS01 KWNS 291944
SWODY1
SPC AC 291943

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20z Update...

No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for
more forecast info.

...Leitman.. 11/29/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/

....Southern Rockies to TX tonight...
As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now
approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far
west TX by early Thursday morning.  Isolated thunderstorms will also
be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of
northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel
cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit
region of the mid-upper jet.  Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico
air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at
the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX.  There will be
sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms
in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z.  Any severe
threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast
period.

$$

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