Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 29 2023 12:59:30

ACUS01 KWNS 291259
SWODY1
SPC AC 291257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....West...
A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near
central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a
shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress
east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining
maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas.

Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will
overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the
exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern
Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during
the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New
Mexico.

....Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast...
Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the
western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the
western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a
30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of
Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over
inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to
develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated
thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through
the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may
reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms
still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday.

...Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.