Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 29 2023 09:40:00

ACUS48 KWNS 290939
SWOD48
SPC AC 290938

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft
will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with
another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains
toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA
across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the
Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces
predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are
expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially
sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At
least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks
as predictability increases.

From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is
forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains
phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and
thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before
moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low.
Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS,
providing stable conditions.

...Jewell.. 11/29/2023

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