Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 29 2023 08:19:29

FOUS30 KWBC 290819
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 29 2023 - 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023 - 12Z Fri Dec 01 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

Surface low over the plains will evolve with a developing cold
front pushing eastward within the time frame. The latest guidance
continues to show a swath of QPF of 1 to 3 inches lifting from the
Gulf Coast to the Ohio River Valley.
Moisture return from the Gulf will have the PW values upwards of 2
to 2.5 standard deviations above normal over a large portion of
the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. One this deep moisture
plume meets the greatest instability hourly rates will likely max
out near 2 inches/hour, leading to local maximums near 4 or more
inches during this period across Louisiana and the immediate
vicinity. The Marginal Risk that was already in effect from the
Central Gulf to southwest Indiana remains in effect. Minor
adjustments were made along the eastern boundary to trim it back
to the west reflecting the latest model trends and WPC forecast.

Campbell

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8p-L57heWl3TV3AUHNPkuODCh_xR2QsBFA1EYFc8sLw5=
AD5SfAiswUrqYIh0ul8D2tig0k7zNeYU_RreZ7itFBZeXss$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8p-L57heWl3TV3AUHNPkuODCh_xR2QsBFA1EYFc8sLw5=
AD5SfAiswUrqYIh0ul8D2tig0k7zNeYU_RreZ7itfJURFCQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8p-L57heWl3TV3AUHNPkuODCh_xR2QsBFA1EYFc8sLw5=
AD5SfAiswUrqYIh0ul8D2tig0k7zNeYU_RreZ7it5e94Rcw$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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