Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 29 2023 06:56:01 ACUS02 KWNS 290655 SWODY2 SPC AC 290654 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas. A couple tornadoes will be possible during the day. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible extending northward into parts of Oklahoma. ....Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the southern Plains on Thursday, with the primary speed max moving from southwest TX toward the Red River through evening, and across the mid MS Valley by 12Z Friday. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will exist over the southern Plains early in the day, but rapid warming aloft is forecast over the southern half of TX and into LA to the south of the jet core. Low pressure will develop over northwest TX into OK by late afternoon, near the track of the upper wave. Low-level lapse rates will steepen in the veering flow over western TX, but the eastward extent of boundary-layer mixing will be impeded by the moistening air mass to the east which will be a bit cool, and contain scattered showers and thunderstorms. Still, a plume of upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north across the middle TX Coast, with a warm front traversing southeast TX and then southwest LA overnight. Aiding moisture advection and shear will be a 50+ kt low-level jet. ....Much of southeast TX into southwest LA... A conditional setup for supercells and a few tornadoes is forecast on Thursday, as low-level moisture increases well ahead of the upper wave, with a warm front pushing north through the period. Impressive SRH values will exist near the warm front, and effective-layer SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 will overlap the instability axis to the west. The primary negative factors for a more substantial severe weather event include the overall nebulous warm advection/forcing mechanism and early-day storms, and warming temperatures aloft south of the midlevel jet. The ability of storms to fully ingest the saturated boundary-layer air mass and utilize the lower portions of the hodograph is also in question. That said, there may be a focused area where storms developing within the warm advection regime can gain access to the instability plume and utilize the stronger shear. Given the strength of the shear, have opted to introduce a 10% tornado area for portions of southeast TX mainly from late morning through mid afternoon. Other storms may persist overnight into LA, with veering low-level winds and overall weaker instability. ....North TX into OK... Lapse rates will be steepest north of the speed max from northwest TX into OK late in the afternoon and through evening. A prominent midlevel dry slot will push across all of central TX and into south-central OK by 00Z as deep-layer shear increases. Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon over northern TX and OK, in the low-level warm advection regime. Forecast soundings show sufficient elevated instability to support hail in the stronger cells. ...Jewell.. 11/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .