Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 28 2023 19:48:28

ACUS01 KWNS 281948
SWODY1
SPC AC 281946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

....20z Update...

No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes
are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from
the central/northern CA coast.

...Leitman.. 11/28/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/

....Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes
now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in
shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake
effect snow bands.  Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for
charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is
expected to diminish through the afternoon.  Farther west, a
midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern
CA coast by early Wednesday.  There may be sufficient
cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated
lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast.

$$

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