Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 28 2023 17:02:58

ACUS02 KWNS 281702
SWODY2
SPC AC 281701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early
Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast
Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of
Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the
central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely.

....Discussion...

A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward
the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height
falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster
increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e
advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support
increasing destabilization during the second half of the period.
Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across
the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain
elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb
through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This
will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection
is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak
low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe
potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday.

...Leitman.. 11/28/2023

$$

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