Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 28 2023 13:00:24

ACUS01 KWNS 281300
SWODY1
SPC AC 281258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

....Lower Great Lakes...
In proximity to the mid-level cold core (-40C at 500 mb) centered
over eastern Ontario and Quebec, steep lapse rates persist with
lake-induced CAPE and lake effect snow in the lee of the Great
Lakes. This low-topped convection may be still conducive to a few
lightning flashes through the morning/early afternoon, particularly
in the lee of Lake Ontario.

....California coast...
A southern-stream trough will approach the California coast late
tonight and early Wednesday. Given the expected weakening nature of
the approaching surface cyclone, and its offshore forecast track,
the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization inland
of northern/central coastal areas appears quite low. While mid-level
cooling ahead of the modest mid-level cold core (500 mb temperatures
around -22 to -24C) may contribute to convection capable of
lightning offshore, lightning production with the convection should
tend to wane as it approaches central California coastal areas late
tonight into early Wednesday.

...Guyer/Mosier.. 11/28/2023

$$

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