Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 28 2023 06:23:54

ACUS02 KWNS 280623
SWODY2
SPC AC 280622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early
Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas. Severe weather
appears unlikely.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move across CA and into western AZ by 00Z
Thursday, and will proceed eastward overnight toward NM. Ahead of
this feature, heights will fall gradually into the southern High
Plains, with relatively neutral tendencies farther east beneath
moderate southwest flow.

In anticipation of this trough, low-level winds will increase out of
the south, especially above the surface near 850 mb where positive
theta-e advection will develop. This will result in elevated
instability over the relatively cool surface layer over parts of
central and eastern TX. Scattered elevated storms are expected, with
little if any hail potential.

Overnight, some models suggest surface-based instability along the
middle TX Coast, where low-level shear will conditionally favor
supercells. Forecast soundings depict moist adiabatic lapse rates in
the boundary layer combined with subtle capping just below 700 mb,
which may prevent much surface-based convection over land through
12Z Thursday. In addition, the potential for deeper convective
confluence lines over the western Gulf is unclear given lack of
deeper convergence aside from shoreline speed convergences. Given
these factors, severe weather is currently not forecast.

Elsewhere, showers associated with an upper trough over CA are
expected to offer little lightning activity as the trough proceeds
eastward away from the coast during the day, with minimal
instability.

...Jewell.. 11/28/2023

$$

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