Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 28 2023 00:46:51

ACUS01 KWNS 280046
SWODY1
SPC AC 280045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the
U.S. through tonight.

....01Z Update...

....Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
Relatively low/warm equilibrium levels, for lifted parcels
contributing to ongoing convective snow bands within deep-layer
cyclonic flow, have generally precluded the development of lightning
to this point.  However, a few lightning flashes were noted between
22-23Z along coastal Ontario to the southeast of Lake Huron.  This
appeared to coincide with the leading edge of southeastward
advecting air characterized by temperatures of -22 to -24C around
700 mb.  As this cooling overspreads the remainder of the lower
Great Lakes vicinity by 06-09Z, there may be sufficient
rising/cooling of equilibrium levels to support convection capable
of producing lightning, mainly over southern/eastern portions of
Lakes Erie/Ontario and immediate adjacent coastal areas.

...Kerr.. 11/28/2023

$$

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