Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 27 2023 09:56:16

ACUS48 KWNS 270956
SWOD48
SPC AC 270954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Thursday/D4, models are in good agreement depicting a shortwave
trough strengthening as it moves into the southern Plains, with
strong height falls over TX and a 70 kt midlevel jet. This wave is
expected to pivot northeastward rapidly after 00Z, with height rises
from the Rio Grande Valley to the ArkLaTex into Friday/D5 morning.

Low pressure will likely develop over northern or central TX during
the day, and will move with the parent trough toward the Ozarks
overnight. Low-level southerly winds will aid moisture advection,
with a warm front possibly into northeast TX and southern AR by
evening. Predictability issues do exist due to numerous showers and
thunderstorms likely to be ongoing throughout the period, focused
east of I-35, which will reduce instability. However, large-scale
ascent will be favorable and so will deep-layer shear, and it is not
inconceivable that areas of severe storms could develop. The threat
is conditional on access to the better instability plume over
southern TX. Given these considerations, predictability is too low
to introduce severe probabilities at this time.

From Friday/D5 onward, the initial trough will lose amplitude
quickly as it moves northeastward, becoming well removed from the
instability plume. This will likely give way to a more generalized
west/southwest flow regime over the Plains and MS Valley, as a
possible large-scale trough amplification occurs over the West. The
result may be scattered to numerous thunderstorms for several days
from TX into the Southeast, with the overall regime characterized as
that of warm advection and heavy rain.

...Jewell.. 11/27/2023

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