Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 27 2023 07:53:02

FOUS30 KWBC 270752
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Mon Nov 27 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 27 2023 - 12Z Tue Nov 28 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Locally heavy rain within the Gulf of Maine and near the coast of
New England will persist this morning as a
a deepening surface low quickly tracks NNE. Hourly rainfall rates
of 0.5 to 1.0 inch/hour is expected to the northwest of the
central low pressure. The low track and axis of heavy rain should
be fast moving within a region lacking appreciable instability,
limiting potential for higher rainfall totals along the coast. The
probability of exceedance was considered too low for a risk area
at this time. In addition, the speed of the surface low should
limit maximum rainfall totals into the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range, not
considered significant for flooding impacts given recent dry
weather across the region.

Campbell/Otto



Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 27 2023 - 12Z Tue Nov 28 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell



Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Noij6-7k1TGz9HM2pmcZT_Y2ke-dnRCzTRQAJvYqebZ=
91pdMqsQpMDzDCntMjvWPR7EYrX7ptN5cCvG_BiSWODlzFM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Noij6-7k1TGz9HM2pmcZT_Y2ke-dnRCzTRQAJvYqebZ=
91pdMqsQpMDzDCntMjvWPR7EYrX7ptN5cCvG_BiS5x0vCB8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Noij6-7k1TGz9HM2pmcZT_Y2ke-dnRCzTRQAJvYqebZ=
91pdMqsQpMDzDCntMjvWPR7EYrX7ptN5cCvG_BiSzbFHLIw$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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