Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 27 2023 07:19:19

ACUS03 KWNS 270719
SWODY3
SPC AC 270718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early
Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas. Severe weather
appears unlikely.

....Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will move east across the Great
Basin, with gradual height falls by Thursday morning into the
southern Plains. As the large-scale eastern trough exits the CONUS,
southerly low-level return flow will develop across the western Gulf
of Mexico, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the TX Coast late. Aiding
moisture advection will be a developing low-level jet Wednesday
night over the western Gulf of Mexico as height falls continue.

The antecedent cool air mass will likely fill with low-clouds
quickly with numerous showers developing. Elevated instability will
favor scattered convection well north of a warm front which will
remain near the TX Coastal Plain. Forecast soundings indicate poor
lapse rates overall, which should both preclude severe hail, and
minimize effective SRH over land.

Elsewhere, isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible late in the
day over the Four Corners region beneath the upper trough.

...Jewell.. 11/27/2023

$$

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