Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 27 2023 00:50:17

ACUS01 KWNS 270050
SWODY1
SPC AC 270048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Sun Nov 26 2023

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through
tonight.

....01Z Update...
While a primary surface cyclone slowly deepens northeast of the
upper Great Lakes, toward James Bay, a more compact secondary low is
forecast to modestly deepen while migrating northward from the
northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity into New England overnight.  A
weaker trailing frontal low is now beginning to redevelop
east-northeast of the northern Florida coast.

Substantive pre-frontal low-level moisture return remains confined
to areas offshore of the south Atlantic coast.  While further
north-northeastward advection of this moisture is probable
overnight, it appears that this will remain well east of the
northern Atlantic Seaboard, as the cold front advances offshore, in
the wake of the low migrating into New England.

Due to the initially limited low-level moisture return, and the lack
of stronger cooling aloft (which is still focused across the Great
Lakes into Ohio Valley vicinity), the development of thermodynamic
profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning
appears unlikely tonight across northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas,
southern New England and adjacent coastal waters.

...Kerr.. 11/27/2023

$$

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