Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 26 2023 17:16:47

ACUS02 KWNS 261716
SWODY2
SPC AC 261715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible over parts of the Great
Lakes, mainly Monday evening/night.

....Great Lakes...
A longwave trough will become established across southeast Canada
into parts of the central to eastern CONUS on Monday. Several
embedded shortwave impulses will rotate around the Canadian upper
low, with one such impulse progged to move across southern Great
Lakes during the afternoon and evening. This will usher in further
cooling of 700-mb temperatures, deepening inversion heights from the
Upper to the Lower Great Lakes. With relatively warm water
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s at present, intensifying lake
effect snow bands are expected, especially where low-level flow is
more favorably aligned in the Tug Hill Plateau region downstream of
Lake Ontario on Monday evening/night. 12Z NAM/15Z RAP and most 12Z
HREF member forecast soundings depict a thermodynamic environment
suitable for mixed-phase updrafts capable of charge separation in
the relatively deeper/longer-lived lake-effect bands.

....South FL...
A surface cold front will progress across the southern peninsula
during the morning and afternoon. Potential for deep convection
should be mitigated by drying/warming between 850-700 mb ahead of
the boundary and minimal large-scale ascent outside of weak
convergence along it. Thunderstorm probabilities appear negligible.

...Grams.. 11/26/2023

$$

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