Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 26 2023 16:08:44 ACUS01 KWNS 261608 SWODY1 SPC AC 261606 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ....Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for the remainder of today/tonight will be focused around two compact coastal lows - one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another migrating northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. ....Northeastern Gulf Coast/FL Big Bend region... Morning soundings sampled 50-60 knot mid-level flow along the FL Gulf coast, which should be supportive of organized convection given weak southeasterly low-level flow. However, recent lightning and radar trends suggest ongoing offshore convection within a relatively buoyant air mass is struggling to maintain intensity/organization. This is likely attributable to poor mid-level lapse rates (also sampled by morning soundings) and somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ongoing precipitation across central/northern FL will likely inhibit the northward progression of higher quality low-level moisture (dewpoints >= 70 F), and may maintain a slight cold advection regime across northern FL for much of the day. Combined with the modest lapse-rate environment, this should modulate surface-based buoyancy values over land. Consequently, confidence remains low that any organized convection that can develop over the northeastern Gulf waters will maintain intensity upon landfall along the Big Bend coast. Trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon as a low-end severe threat may materialize if coastal buoyancy exceeds current expectations. ....Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast... A few lightning flashes will be possible overnight as a warm advection regime associated with the coastal low overspreads the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. Despite strong flow aloft, the elevated nature of any convection, combined with very modest buoyancy profiles, should preclude organized thunderstorms. ...Moore.. 11/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .