Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 26 2023 09:50:45

ACUS48 KWNS 260950
SWOD48
SPC AC 260949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Wednesday/D4, the large upper trough over the East will begin to
lift out, with height rises over much of the region. The upper low
will remain over Hudson Bay, with features rotating around the west
side of the low and into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a
low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to affect AZ and NM
overnight and into Thursday/D5.

This southern wave will proceed into the southern Plains on
Thursday/D5, with good model agreement. Height falls and lift will
occur over much of TX, OK and KS, and toward the middle MS Valley by
the end of the day. Moisture will return north across eastern TX and
toward the ArkLaTex with 60s F dewpoints, and 50s as far north as
central MO. Low pressure will develop from northern TX into MO
through Friday/D6 morning, aided by a broad fetch of theta-e
advection around 850 mb. Given the antecedent cool/dry air mass
ahead of the moisture return, widespread clouds are likely, with
poor low-level lapse rates. A few strong storms may occur during the
day over eastern TX, with increasingly elevated instability farther
north.

General height rises are then forecast over much of the South
Friday/D6 through Sunday/D8 as another possible shortwave trough
moves across the Rockies. This pattern will favor showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, and the next trough
evolution will need to be monitored into next weekend as moisture
will be in place along the Gulf Coast.

...Jewell.. 11/26/2023

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