Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 25 2023 17:24:41

ACUS02 KWNS 251724
SWODY2
SPC AC 251723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.

....Discussion...
A relatively quiescent pattern for lightning-capable convection will
persist across much of the CONUS. The exception will be across the
Gulf Coast States where sporadic to isolated thunderstorms are
possible, mainly in the first half of the period. Thunder potential
will be largely driven by lower-level warm theta-e advection
downstream of a longwave trough that shifts east from the western
across the central states. The warm advection regime will initially
be focused across the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast during
the morning where scant elevated buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse
rates may support sporadic flashes in the deeper cores. This should
similarly shift east into northeast Gulf Coast region by afternoon.

There is a slight chance that surface-based convection could become
established near the warm front that will attempt to advance north
across the west-central FL coast during the afternoon to early
evening. Should this occur, low-level hodographs appear marginally
supportive of a transient supercell with low-end waterspout/brief
coastal tornado potential. Have added thunder but will defer to the
D1 cycle for highlighting a potential meso-beta/gamma scale area
with a 2% tornado probability.

...Grams.. 11/25/2023

$$

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