Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 25 2023 16:17:09

ACUS01 KWNS 251617
SWODY1
SPC AC 251615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2023

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning across
the northwest Gulf coast.

....Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over CO/NM will progress eastward over
KS/OK to MO/AR by the end of the period.  There will be weak
low-level mass response to this passing wave and some associated
increase in warm advection over the northwest Gulf coast late in the
period. The northward return of a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass
could result in sufficient magnitude and depth of buoyancy for
charge separation and a few lightning flashes with elevated
convection from roughly 08-12z.  Otherwise, midlevel lapse rates
will remain poor and forcing for ascent will be weak over southeast
FL, so thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Thompson/Moore.. 11/25/2023

$$

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