Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 25 2023 07:32:09

FOUS30 KWBC 250732
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 25 2023 - 12Z Sun Nov 26 2023

....A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...

Showers and thunderstorms should attempt to attain some level of
organization near the Gold Coast this period as instability slowly
increases into the 500-1000 J/kg range in and near a coastal
front, precipitable water values lie in the 1.5-2" range, and
enough effective bulk shear is expected due to surface easterly
flow conflicting with 850-400 hPa mean westerly flow.  This wind
conflict with height could help tie convection near the coast and
keep storms from showing much movement, which would be a problem
as hourly rain totals to 2.5" would be possible where storms form.
 The 00z HREF shows a high chance of 3"+ amounts in the Gold
Coast, but saves its best chances for 5"+ for the Gulf Stream just
offshore.  There is quite the spread in the guidance here, with
the global models a bit less impressed than the mesoscale
guidance.  Regardless, the excessive rainfall threat appears to be
isolated.  Since the synoptic pattern looks favorable, added a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding for South
Florida.  Isolated problems are possible in urban where rain rates
overwhelm drainage.

Roth


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8bj5ztJzIRzv1ZUQA3_q9DtKGed-0xc-s-BY3YSRIJn-=
zGnHBjXdj-kQ5Dje8tYA4UlcdESFcsbRfGbauBzzBW875Rw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8bj5ztJzIRzv1ZUQA3_q9DtKGed-0xc-s-BY3YSRIJn-=
zGnHBjXdj-kQ5Dje8tYA4UlcdESFcsbRfGbauBzzsrwhulY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8bj5ztJzIRzv1ZUQA3_q9DtKGed-0xc-s-BY3YSRIJn-=
zGnHBjXdj-kQ5Dje8tYA4UlcdESFcsbRfGbauBzz5AsVgJU$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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