Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 25 2023 05:17:08 ACUS01 KWNS 250517 SWODY1 SPC AC 250515 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ....Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging near the U.S/British Columbia Pacific coast, which may include a developing embedded mid-level high offshore of the Pacific Northwest, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Northwest Territories into the northern U.S. Great Plains by daybreak Sunday. As it does, models indicate that a significant mid/upper trough, currently digging into the Four Corners vicinity, will accelerate east of the southern Rockies late today through tonight. Preceded by fairly extensive cold surface ridging currently encompassing most areas to the east of the Rockies, and much of the Gulf of Mexico, models indicate only weak surface troughing developing ahead of a reinforcing cold intrusion to the lee of the southern Rockies, through at least this period. A moistening southerly return flow may still begin to develop off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer, across the northwestern Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Great Plains. However, it appears that this will only yield layers of very weak elevated destabilization inland of immediate Gulf coastal areas. Aided by the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and colder mid-level temperatures, convection (mostly rooted around 700 mb) capable of producing lightning does not appear entirely out of the question across parts of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas into Arkansas, this afternoon through tonight. While the extent of this potential remains at least a bit unclear, thunderstorm probabilities still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunder area, based on current forecast soundings. ...Kerr/Weinman.. 11/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .