Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 23 2023 12:40:57

ACUS01 KWNS 231240
SWODY1
SPC AC 231239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward western CONUS
troughing, as a series of shortwave perturbations now over the
Canadian Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and offshore from CA, phase
into a closed cyclone over the ID/NV border by 00Z.  The resulting
vortex then should intensify and move slowly southeastward across
the Great Basin through the rest of this period, and into day 2.  A
cold-core region of strong midlevel DCVA/ascent and related
destabilization aloft will contribute to weak convection across
parts of northern NV and western UT through tonight.  Theta-e
appears too weak for a 10% or greater areal thunderstorm threat,
though isolated/brief thunder is possible.

Ahead of that system, height falls will expand across the Desert
Southwest, Colorado Plateau, northwestern MX, and tonight, the Rocky
Mountain States.  As that occurs, a southern-stream cyclone now over
northeastern MX will devolve to an open wave, eject/accelerate into
broadly confluent flow aloft over the Gulf Coast States, and weaken
markedly.  Before it does, the foregoing area of precip and embedded
showers will continue to shift northeastward to east-northeastward
across south and east TX, parts of LA, and the northwest Gulf.  A
few flashes have been detected the past several hours over
northeastern MX and the Gulf.  However, overall mid/upper forcing
will be diminishing with time.  Buoyancy will remain very weak
behind the prior low-level cold-frontal passage, and lightning
potential (if any) appears too isolated and unfocused for an outlook
area.

...Edwards/Broyles.. 11/23/2023

$$

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