Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 23 2023 09:23:28

ACUS48 KWNS 230923
SWOD48
SPC AC 230921

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Low-level moisture is generally expected to remain confined to the
Gulf of Mexico and occasionally near-coastal areas through the
extended range, which is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm
potential through the middle of next week.

On D4/Sunday, a frontal wave is forecast to move eastward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. This wave is expected to remain rather
weak, with stronger upper-level support displaced to the north.
While some convection may affect portions of the Gulf Coast and the
northern FL Peninsula in association with this wave, current
guidance generally suggests that the strongest thunderstorms will
remain over the Gulf.

In the wake of the D4/Sunday system, another cold front will move
through the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. This should
tend to limit moisture return and convective potential across most
of the CONUS into the middle of next week.

...Dean.. 11/23/2023

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